Bolt Notes:Week 16 Analysis and NFL Picks

Well, changing my picking style did nothing for changing my luck. Another 10-6 week brought my total through 15 weeks to 142-82. This week I feel pretty strong that I will improve. I'm looking for a 13 win week! The only way I seek another average week is for teams to rest starters, or just not mentally show up for work since they did, or didn't, make the playoffs. For the most part, there are many teams who still have a shot at the playoffs, or a possible bye week, so I expect full effort around the league. Even the Colts who have locked up the number one seed in the AFC have a reason to try...the undefeated season!

Here is my take on the week 16 matchups across the NFL!

buffalo @ ATLANTA

I do not think much of the Bills and they have nothing to play for but the chance to be spoilers. Atlanta has shown that they can play despite being banged up. Atlanta at home make sense to me.

kansas city @ CINCINNATTI

A heart breaking loss last Sunday to my Bolts, followed by a tear jerking funeral of their teammate Chris Henry, is a tough way to go into a game. However, the Chiefs might lose to an average division 1 college football team right now. The Bengals will have little to no problem with KC.

oakland @ CLEVELAND

Another quarterback change for Cleveland, and a quarterback mess for Oakland, makes this game a tough call. I have to go with Cleveland and their new found running game, along with their special teams play. I wouldn't be shocked to see Oakland pull this one out, but I have to go with the Brownies this time.

seattle @ GREEN BAY

Seattle may have earned the title, "worst team in the NFL", after last week's performance. I don't care who they are playing, I can't pick them. It doesn't hurt that they are playing a good team coming off of a heart breaker. Green Bay in a blow out!

BALTIMORE @ pittsburgh

I'm not incredibly confident in this pick. If Pittsburgh was healthy on defense, I would go with the home team. However, I can't see Big Ben having another 500+ yards passing performance this week and he needed every one of those yards to squeek out a win last week. Ravens in a tough battle.

houston @ MIAMI

I rarely get the Houston game right. I struggle with Miami as well! I guess it is because they are rather inconsistant teams. They are the NFL's "box of chocolates". I'm guessing that Matt Shaub will have another good day, in another losing effort. Miami is always close at the end so I will take them at home.

jacksonville @ NEW ENGLAND

I may rethink this game if the Chargers win on Christmas. Right now, the Patriots are fighting to get the number two seed in the AFC. If the Chargers beat the Titans, the Bolts lock up number two. In that case, the Pats may pull back a little and keep some guys healthy. Since they are not the Pats of old, that would be enough to put Jacksonville over the top. Oh well, I have to commit, so I will take New England in a close game.

tampa bay @ NEW ORLEANS

The Saints want the number two seed in the NFC and will not let the lowly Bucs get in their way. They can play without that perfect monkey on their backs as well. Even Mercury Morris is not longer casting spells on them from Miami (you know they might worry about that in New Orleans). Beating the Bucs will be a Brees for New Orleans.

carolina @ NY GIANTS

Giants need every game to hope for a playoff birth. Carolina doesn't have enough to get in their way in New York. Giants by a wide margin.

detroit @ SAN FRANCISCO

Detroit has shown the ability to compete, but not the ability to win. The Niners are at least average and should be able to beat the Lions at home. I wouldn't want to be in the post game meeting with Singletary if the Niners lose this one.

st. louis @ ARIZONA

Cards are playing decent, yet inconsistant, football. They should still have enough to beat the Rams. I see Warner having no problem hitting his talented targets all day long. Cards win this home game with ease.

ny jets @ INDIANAPOLIS

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. I won't pick against the Colts until they lose, or play the Chargers. Personally, as a Chargers fan, I'm hoping the Colts continue their perfect record into the playoffs. That will add some pressure on them. Who knows, they may even go one and done and never see my Bolts. Well, let's not get ahead of ourselves. Thinking ahead has killed the Chargers before. For this week, I'll take the Colts to stay perfect.

denver @ PHILADELPHIA

Philly is hot and trying to catch the Vikings for the number two seed in the NFC. The Broncos are inconsistant and coming off an embarrassing loss to the Raiders. They are still looking good for the playoffs, but it they lose this one, they may fall completely out in week 17. No way that the Broncos offense scores with the Eagles high powered offense right now.

DALLAS @ washington

Until last Monday, I may have picked the Skins in this one. However, the Cowboys looked great last week and the Redskins looked like they were already on vacation and just had their practice squad stand in for the starters. There is not doubt that the caos that is going on in Washington has taken its' toll on the players and coaching staff. The end can't come soon enough for these guys. Cowboys in a blow out.

MINNESOTA @ chicago

Good timing for Mimmesota. They are having power struggles between the coach (Chilly) and the quarterback (The Brett Favre). For some teams that would cause them to lose focus and blow games they should win. However, they are playing against Jay Cutler, the interception machine! No one turns the ball over as consistantly as Chokeler, especially in the redzone. I can't see Adrian, oopps, I mean Brett, and the boys losing this one.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ tennessee titans

This is a tough one for me. I truly believe that if the Chargers come out, focused, and wanting to win, they will outscore the Titans in a fairly high scoring affair. The Chargers have such a well tuned passing game that the "generous" Titans pass defense could not keep the Bolts out of the endzone. Also, the Titans just lost two starting linebackers, including Bullick, their leader, so the running game may perk up as well. Of course, that does not mean that the Titans won't have their strong drives when they have the ball. The Chargers don't defend the run that well and Chris Johnson is just going nuts! Over 1700 yards on the ground thus far for Johnson! The Titans average over 160 yard per game on the ground. Also, since Vince Young took over the helm, the Titans are 7-1 and he is performing at a level not seen since his days in Texas.

Then there is plan B. Plan B would be to sit the Chargers best players this week to perserve their health. Two years ago, the Titans and Chargers played each other in a blood bath. The Chargers lost several key players including injury prone Shawne Merriman who was chop blocked after leveling Vince Young away from the play. I wouldn't mind seeing the Chargers taking out guys like Rivers, Tomlinson, Gates, Merriman, Castillo, Jackson, Jammer, and Philips. Let them rest and take your chances with their backups. Even center Nick Hardwick would only play half of the game in plan B. He is getting his first playing time since week one. Give him a half and get him out of there! I know that this would look like the Chargers were scared and that would hurt their manhood, but that would be better than losing key player right before the playoffs again.

Another nice part of plan B is that all the Charger would have to do is beat Washington, in San Diego, in week 17 to lock up the number two seed in the AFC. Rest your studs this week, play them next week until the game is locked up. They get another rest for week one of the playoffs and then they should be fresh for their first playoff game. I like it!

As for my prediction....I don't think they will go with plan B. Therefore, I will do the sign of the cross and pray that their are no major injuries.

CHARGERS 31 - titans 23

Enjoy the games and let me know what you think!