Bolt Notes: Divisonal Round Analysis and Picks

Okay, it is late on Friday night and I just got home from a high school girl's water polo tournament. I am hearing my bed calling me, but I have to at least make my picks for this weekends game. After all, it could be the most exciting week of football on the whole season. Anyway, sorry so brief, but I hope you will check it out and give me your picks as well. By the way, I was 3-1 last week.

CARDINALS @ saints

As with many of these games, my pick has changed on a daily basis this week. It should be a shootout, but who knows where the Saints are right now. I began the week liking the Saints to win at home in a high scoring game. As the week went on, I started dwelling on the fact that the Saints haven't played to win in a month! Are they so good that they can turn off the switch in week 15 and then turn it back on and beat Kurt Warner and the high flying Cardinals? I don't think so. Cards 38 Saints 24

ravens @ COLTS

I hear people talking about the great Ravens defense and the powerful Ravens running game. Okay, I'll buy that (for the most part). I hear others say that the Colts, and Peyton Manning, don't do well in the playoffs after a bye. Okay, I'll buy that (history doesn't lie). Then I look at the fact that Joe Flacco is hurt, the Colts are at home, and the Colts are pissed off that they didn't get a chance to be perfect. Also, the last time these two teams met, Flacco was healthy and his powerful offense only scored on 5 field goals. If the Ravens can't score touchdowns, they can't beat the Colts. Ravens 12 Colts 24

cowboys @ VIKINGS

Here is another game that I have flip-flopped on all week. Yes, the Cowboys are on fire right now. Yes, Tony Romo has knocked the playoff monkey off of his back. Yes, Brett Favre is almost as old as I am. Yes, Adrian Peterson hasn't broken the century mark in a game in the last seven weeks. All that being said, I think the Cowboys don't have the pressure they had on them last week and may relax just a little bit. Also, Favre is sure to have one great game in the playoffs. In fact, I see him playing great this week and having a tough game next week and missing the Super Bowl (at least that is what I feel today). Look for the Cowboys to come back down to earth. Cowboys 20 Vikings 28

jets @ CHARGERS

Well, obviously I am going with the Bolts this week. I always go with the Bolts. I'm a homer and have no problem admitting it! That being said, I must say that the closer we get to game time, the wider I think the margin of victory will be. The way I see it is that the Jets have one studly defensive back in Revis. The problem is that they don't have anymore. They need someone to cover all the other weapons that they Chargers possess. Go ahead and lock down Jackson. Just look out for Floyd, Gates, Nanee, Sproles, Tomlinson and even Tolbert. The Chargers just have too much fire power for the Jets.

The Jets will be able to run the ball, but other teams have run the ball as well and still lost to the Bolts. The Chargers give up a lot of yards, but not that many points. In the last half of the season, the Chargers defense has played very well in the redzone. You can ask the Dallas Cowboys if that statement is true.

The fact is that if the Chargers can score like I think they can, the Jets will be forced to pass the football more than they want to. Not that Sanchez is terrible, but he is a rookie and I don't think he beats Philip Rivers in a battle of the quarterbacks. If it becomes a shootout, the Jets don't stand a chance.

Don't get me wrong, I do think the Jest have a chance to win this game. I am not looking past them. I just think that the Chargers are a better team and if they play their game, the Jets so not have the answers for them. That really became clear to me when I started hearing quotes from Jets coach Rex Ryan. The way I see it is if the coach is talking smack, it is probably to try to get in the Chargers heads and to convince his own team that they have a chance.

Jets 16 Chargers 31

Enjoy the games!

Bolt Notes: Wild Card Weekend Analysis And Picks!

In the immortal words or George Thorogood...."And away we go!" That's right, the 2009/2010 NFL playoffs will begin on Saturday with some great wild card matchups! We have the Jets invading Cincinnati, and the Eagles flying to Dallas! Both games are repeats of week 17 matchups that had the Jets and Cowboys claiming victories and momentum going into the post season. Do last week's victories really mean that much? Or, do we throw them out and start from scratch?

If that wasn't enough excitement for one weekend, we have the Sunday games! We begin with the Ravens trying to rough up the ailing Patriots and the Packers trying to win back to back weeks against the Cardinals.

I don't know about you, but I can't wait. Now, let's see who I pick and why. I would love to see some comments from you sharing how you feel things will work out.

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals

Last Sunday, the Jets hosted Cincinnati and simply put a beat down on them. The Bengals started their first string and accomplished nothing. Literally nothing! Carson Palmer only completed one pass for exactly zero yards! His backup didn't fare much better as the Bengals folded for the Jets, allowing New York to waltz right into the playoffs where they will meet the Bengals again.

The question is, how bad did Cincy want to win that game? It appeared that they tried to keep things simple and not give away too much. That may have been their theory but they had to leave the game wondering why they could not move the ball at all against the Jets top rated defense. Not to mention, Bengals star receive, Chad Ochocinco slipped in pre-game and injured his knee. He will play Sunday, but he may be somewhat limited. Perhaps Ochocinco will be happy in the long run to have an excuse why he got shut down two weeks in a row.

Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan has explained in the media that despite their 9-7 record coming into the playoffs, their top rated defense and their top rated running game should make them favorites to win the Super Bowl. Well, I hear where he is coming from, but I'm not buying what he is selling.

It has been said that the team that can run the ball and play the best defense will win in post season. I would even say that I agree with that statement. However, let's look at why it is true most years. First of all, defense tends to show up every week when offenses can have bad days. Second, there are fewer bad things that can happen when you run the football and you control the clock when you keep it on the ground. Okay fine. I'm with you so far Rex. Here is where I split apart. In my humble opinion, the reason that teams with tough defenses, and offenses that feature the run are so hard to beat in post season is the weather. Normally, there are teams in the post season, hosting games, in the bitter cold, snow, ice, and rain soaked fields. In those conditions, it is very difficult to pass the ball. If you don't have a run game, you are really hurting. Looking at this year's venues, we won't be having inclimate weather games to deal with. After the wild card week, all the games are likely to be played in a dome, or a warm weather site like San Diego. Passing offenses could flourish this year.

As for this game? Well, this is the one exception to the good weather games for this post season. It is supposed to be cold and snowing in Cincinnati on Saturday. That is bad news for Carson Palmer and the Bengals offense. The Jets have shown that they can win without the help of rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. He can throw 15 times a game to keep the other team honest and then let his potent ground game take over. Much like the Steelers a few years ago. With that in mind, I have to pick the Jets to win this one in a low scoring, fast moving game.

Jets 20 Bengals 13

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys

I have flip flopped on this game at least five times this week. Romo and the Cowboys have never won a playoff game together. The Eagles tend to move through the playoffs every year until they lose focus and falter. The thing about this game that makes it a tough call is that the Eagles were shutout by the Cowboys just a week ago! Shutout!!! In fact, the Cowboys defense has thrown back to back shut outs to end the regular season. That is hard to do against anyone, much less the very talented Eagles offense, lead by Donavin McNabb.

Some people say that the Eagles laid down because they had the playoffs locked up. I don't see it that way. They could have earned a bye in week one and a home game next week if they had won the game. They had to be trying. Yet, they failed to even kick a field goal.

Well, just as the Cowboys silenced the critics by showing they can win a game or two in December, I think they are in line to win one in the playoffs this year. Since they are at home, I will be going with Tony Romo and the Cowboys.

Eagles 20 Cowboys 27

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots

As a Chargers fan, this matchup is particularly interesting to me. If the Patriots win, the Chargers will face them in the divisional round. If the Ravens win, the Bolts will face the winner of the Jets/Bengals game. With the injuries that New England has suffered and the veterans they have lost on defense, I think most Bolt fans would tell you that they want the Patriots to win and then come to San Diego to get humiliated! But then again, you can't forget the last couple of times they have met in the playoffs and the game has not turned out so hot for the Chargers. Be careful what you wish for keeps coming to mind.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves though. The Chargers have the luxury of sitting and watching this weeks game. In fact, if the Chargers are hoping for anything it may be that the Patriots and Ravens play a brutally physical game and both teams crawl off the field needing medical attention and perhaps last rights! In that case, it wouldn't matter who won.

The Patriots go into this game with some real challenges. Top clutch receiver Wes Welker blew out his knee last week and will not be available. That is a huge loss, even though they do have a Welker clone in Julian Edleman who came in for Welker last week and grabbed 10 receptions for 103 yards. The question is, can this rookie receiver perform on the big stage? Also banged up in New England is quarterback Tom Brady. Cracked ribs and a broken finger on his throwing hand have been reported. Some of his passes last week leads me to believe the stories are true. Pats coach Bill Belichick claims that Brady is fine, but we all know that Belichick has a different take on what the truth is than most fans outside of New England.

The Ravens had their issues this year but they do have a strong running attack and a very good second year starting quarterback in Joe Flacco. Also, Ray Lewis is still making plays and delivering big hits for the Ravens defense. The Ravens defense is not the feared D that it once was, but they can still come up with plays and hits that make you remember the team that once was at the top of the NFL on that side of the ball.

Look for this to be a hard hitting, turnover filled game. The weather should not be a huge factor. It should be very cold, but clear. As long as it stays dry, both teams should be able to pass the ball. However, a cold ball is a slippery ball so look for fumbles and picks to make the difference. I have to give the Pats credit for knowing how to win the big games against teams they should beat.

Baltimore Ravens 23 New England Patriots 24

Green Bay Packers vs Arizona Cardinals

The last game of the weekend is another rematch form week 17. The Cardinals took a beating last week as Aaron Rodgers and the Packers ran right over them. However, that doesn't mean much this week as you must remember that Arizona had nothing to play for and they had Matt Lienhart at quarterback most of the game. That being said, you have remember that Arizona did decide to play much of their first string which lead to the high ankle sprain of wide receiver Anquan Boldin. That is bad news for Arizona. Although Boldin is as tough as they come, he may not be very effective this week.

The Packers come into this week as the hottest team in football not named the Chargers. Aaron Rodgers is playing at an extremely high level and looking for a possible third matchup with his old teammate, Brett Favre. The Packers have the entire package. They run fairly well, they play solid defense, and they can throw the heck out of the ball. This should be one exciting game to watch!

When it comes down to it, you have to consider the pride of the Arizona Cardinals. They come into this game as the reigning NFC champions! They do not want to lose that honor to a wild card team at their own field. Look for Kurt Warner to make miracles happen on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers 27 Arizona Cardinals 32

Enjoy the games!