Bolt Notes: Week 11 Wrap Up, Preview, and NFL Picks!

Here is a free lesson in why you should not bet money on sports (unless you are wealthy and want to donate money to your friends or your local Indian Casino). Are you ready? Here it is....Because there are too many things beyond your control in sports! You can't control injuries to key players (Kyle Orton). You can't control unexpected motivation that may help a player play like the player he used to be (L.T. after finding out his wife was pregnant). You can't control coaches doing bazaar things in crucial situation (See Bill Belichick). I could go on and on, but you get the picture. That being said, I still like to try and pick the winners, I just don't bet on them.

As for my picks last week....not so good. A very poor 8-7 week brings my season total to 89-55. This embarrassing total makes me more determined than ever to get this weeks picks right! Well, except for the Thursday night game that I already lost. Remember to read to the end and see if you agree with my picks this week.

Wrap Up: Eagles @ Chargers

I must admit that I was pleasantly surprised that the Chargers continued their winning streak against the Eagles last week (4 games). Whenever a strong passing team comes into San Diego, I worry because the Bolts don't always pressure the quarterback well, which causes the receivers to have plenty of time to find an open spot. It turned out that the pressure was there at time and most of the big plays that Philly is known for were taken away. That doesn't mean that the Eagles couldn't pass the ball. They passed for 450 yards on the day! What it meant was that the Eagles were forced to sustain long drives if they wanted to score touchdowns. In fact, early in the game, the Eagles drove the ball down the field, deep into the redzone, and only came out with field goals. The Chargers claim that was their plan. The old bend, but don't break defense. The Bamboo Defense, if you will.

While Philly was kicking field goals, the Chargers were busy scoring touchdowns! An old friend, LaDainian Tomlinson, showed up in a big way for this game. He ran for a season high 96 yards and two touchdowns, including one from 21 yards out. The line was actually making holes, and L.T. was busting through! It was fun to watch.

Philip Rivers completed 80% of his passes as he continues to have an MVP type season. He was only able to hit his top receiver, Vincent Jackson, once for 10 yards, but that didn't matter. Antonio Gates is in top form and was open all day. Malcolm Floyd was stretching the field, and Legadu Nanee showed that he is much more than a third string receiver.

This win was the finishing touch on erasing a 3 1/2 game deficit and they are now tied for the AFC West lead with the Denver Broncos who lost to lowly Washington.

Preview: Chargers @ Broncos

Oh yes, did I mention that the Chargers and Broncos are tied for first place? Of course I did. That is all people in both cities are talking about! In fact, the last game the Chargers lost was to the Broncos on Monday night, five weeks ago. The last game the Broncos won was that same game. These appear to be two teams heading in opposite directions.

Now, Broncos fan will tell you that their first two losses are no big deal. They lost to Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Both teams are formidable, and losing to them is no reason to panic (that was also what the Chargers said when they lost to both of those teams). Then the unthinkable happened. The Broncos went to Washington and lost to the Redskins! The Redskins who are going through major problems. The Redskins who have all but said that their head coach will not return next year. The Redskins who hadn't scored more than 17 points all season! Those Redskins.

Again, Broncos fan will tell you that the loss to Washington doesn't mean anything because they had their starting quarterback injured during the game and had to play the second half with Chris Simms at QB. Simms hadn't played much at all in the last three years and was rusty. Okay, I buy that. I do believe that if Orton was healthy, he and the Broncos would have won the game. However, that doesn't explain why the Denver defense is getting run over by second rate running backs like Lydell Betts! In the Broncos last three losses, their defense is giving up over 160 yards per game on the ground! That sounds like problems to me.

Let's not forget the whole injured quarterback issue. With Orton in the lineup, and healthy, the Broncos beat the Chargers five weeks ago and their offense was able to control the clock and allow their defense to stay rested and aggressive. This week, look for Orton to be on the sideline, or playing injured. That should make it easier for the Chargers to stack the box and try to take away the Broncos run game and force the Broncos to beat them through the air.

Another possible issue for the Broncos is that they have a very young coach who has never had to face this kind of adversity before. He came into the league with some new, fresh ideas and shocked several good teams. However, lately it seems that the league is figuring him out and has made the necessary adjustments. Now, McDaniels has to show that he can make adjustments of his own to counteract what his opponents are doing. He hasn't shown that ability yet. Fortunately for him, most people would tell you that if he was ever going to be able to out-coach an experienced NFL head coach, this would be the week.

As for the Chargers, things are looking up. They are riding a four game winning streak and have shown signs of life on defense. The pressure on the quarterback problem that they had in the first half of the year has been answered with 17 sacks over the last four games. Hard hits, quarterback pressure, and a much stronger defense against the run make the Chargers a different defense than they were the last time these teams matched up.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Chargers have improved as well. Rivers is still lighting up the sky with great passes, but now, the offensive line is giving him more time and they are actually giving some holes for running backs to run through! It's been a long time since I could report that. In my opinion, the main reasons that so many people think that LT is washed up is that he has been hurt and his line has been horrible. If he is truly healthy and the line is working better together, then look out for the rest of the season!

I think the only fear that I have, as a Chargers fan, going into this game against Denver, is overconfidence. The Bolts have shown that they can swagger a little too much and think that they can just throw their helmets on the field and win. That would not be beneficial in this case as the Broncos are still dangerous even with their major issues.

WEEK 11 NFL PICKS!


DOLHINS @ panthers (Didn't remember Ricky)

redskins @ COWBOYS (Cowboys at home)

browns @ DETROIT (Lions aren't as bad as Browns)

niners @ PACKERS (Tough call)

STEELERS @ chiefs (No contest)

seahawks @ VIKINGS (Favre and Peterson)

falcons @ GIANTS (Giants desperate, Turner hurt)

SAINTS @ bucs (Bush out, but shouldn't matter)

bills @ JAGUARS (Bills are a mess)

COLTS @ ravens (Colts own Ravens)

CARDINALS @ rams (Cards are better)

BENGALS @ raiders (Bengals on a roll)

jets @ PATRIOTS (Pats looking for revenge and respect)

EAGLES @ bears (McNabb over Cutler although both stink in redzone)

TITANS @ texans (Titans could come down to earth, but they have improved)

CHARGERS 38 @ broncos 13